Rabi Mohtar on Nexus-Oriented Strategies for Addressing Climate Change

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The following is a summary of the concluding talk given by Rabi Mohtar on Day 1 of the Dresden Nexus Conference 2015. For a full-length video of this talk, visit the Dresden Nexus Conference Playlist or watch the video below.


Global changes, specifically regarding the effects of climate on water resources, are simply put into context through the phrase “wet regions will get wetter, while dry will get dryer”. There is a significant interaction between soil moisture and surface water, which is associated with securities for both water and food. Other global changes are the loss of arable land to either degradation or land-use changes and salinity effects. Factors such as the rise of sea level, the use of fertilizer, the reuse of water and the poor management of land also contribute to global changes that will have a severe effect on projected climate changes and the consequent impact on agriculture.

Climate change projections are significant. It is predicted that there will be more intense, frequent and longer heat waves; a decrease in subtropical precipitation; an increase in precipitation intensity with longer periods between rain events; a drying of mid-continent in summer leading to greater risk of droughts; an increase in hurricane peak wind intensities and the number of most intense hurricanes; an increase in wind intensities and in the number of most intense storms. These projections will have substantial manifestations in agriculture, leading to greater crop water needs, greater city water needs, less fresh surface water in some locations, more water with infrequent events (floods/droughts), more pests and diseases, less crop cover (erosion risk), northward crop migrations, diminished water quality and more expensive energy. These projections and manifestations are just a few examples of what can occur due to climate change.

A systems theory is useful when applying the nexus approach to issues of climate change because the nexus approach provides both tools and visualization to aid policy planning. There is a rebound effect in which efficiency improvements sometimes do not achieve the stated aim of those improvements. Many examples from the Water-Soil-Waste Nexus, specifically for the improvement of water use and efficiency of irrigation, demonstrate the need to keep the systems goal in mind. Additional important elements in enabling lasting change are nexus governance strategies, gaps in data and tools, along with the importance of communication and engagement of stakeholders. Policy, role of pricing and scaling issues are also important factors when utilizing the nexus approach. The private sector is a major stakeholder that needs to be engaged in implementation of nexus-oriented strategies; its role is often missed or overlooked.

A new method that can make tremendous change is the localization of water and food security through the better understanding of green water. ‘New’ water is another innovative resource for this method. With these new methods come research gaps, which need to be considered in order for the localization of resources to occur. Many gaps have been identified when using the systems theory in the nexus approach, however three stand out. One gap illustrates lack of recognition and characterization of soil as an organized physical medium, which provides the physical conditions for life and development of the numerous biotic and abiotic processes inside the soil medium. A second gap states that a quantification of the soil natural organization/structure is needed in order to have measurable (physical) parameters that provide a description of the interactions within the soil-water system. And the third is to adapt the natural multi-scale organization for processes scaling. A portfolio of nexus solutions result in the basis of nexus scenarios, which need to be assessed so that tradeoffs can be established. Such tradeoff analysis can be the basis of multi-stakeholder dialogues.

Upon conclusion of Day 1 of the Dresden Nexus Conference 2015, there still exists a drastic need for alterations to be made in relation to the use of the nexus approach for addressing the global issue of climate change. Since there is a tremendous impact on water, energy and food security by the changing climate, further adaptation measures must be bold and new models are needed to deliver better results and projections. The nexus approach, which is based on holistic systems theory, is needed to help identify hotspots in the nexus, since one sector does not dominate sustainability. Also, economic growth needs to be decoupled from resource consumption. Localizing water and food security through regional integrations can create more resilience to climate adaptation along with the use of ‘new’ water to bridge the water gap. Accounting for soil and water processes, modelling and mapping, and data and uncertainty is critical to water and food security. The energy sector is critical for the nexus approach, especially renewables for water, food and energy access. Lastly, the nexus and SDGs need to be brought to the human level in order to make lasting changes, and the role of diplomacy in nexus implementation must not be ignored.